Download A Brief History of Tomorrow: How The Experts Usually Screw by Jonathan Margolis PDF

By Jonathan Margolis

A desirable examine the longer term, as you've by no means noticeable it.

Ten years from now, do we have a tiny computer surgically inserted in an earlobe, able to connecting to cellphone strains and the web? Fifty years from now, will atomic-sized robots change surgeons? 100 years from now, rather than taking the bus, can we easily teleport to paintings? all of it could sound like very unlikely technological know-how fiction, yet just lately, so did strolling at the moon. Journalist Jonathan Margolis interviews prime thinkers in such fields as genetics, drugs, neurobiology, quantum physics, robotics, laptop technology, and area trip to discover the place we're going, and what it is going to seem like while - and if - we get there.

Beginning with famously wrong prior visions of the longer term - between them H.G. Wells, George Orwell, Arthur C. Clarke, Stephen Hawking, and invoice Gates - Margolis examines the various unusual and tempting futures that could lie in shop for us. Politics, society, faith, and paintings are all destined for excellent adjustments. What may well they be? How will they arrive approximately? Thought-provoking, fun, and completely unique, a short background of the next day is a deliciously compelling examine anything all of us spend loads of time considering: the longer term.

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Extra info for A Brief History of Tomorrow: How The Experts Usually Screw Up (Future Forecasting)

Sample text

Technological shortcuts also produce uneven results; they work when applied to some segments of the targeted population but do nothing for the rest. Above all, technological solutions only eliminate the surface manifestations of the problem and do not get at its roots. A methadone program does not address the social and psychological causes of drug addiction, and improved methods of removing graffiti do nothing to mitigate the anger and alienation that may motivate the defacement of public spaces.

We will return to these themes in Chapter 17, but first we will take a closer look at how technology can affect people and groups in different ways. In your opinion, which recent technology has produced the greatest benefit? Which has produced the most harm? Are there any harmful elements to the beneficial technology, and has anything good come from the harmful one? Do all technologies require material artifacts of some sort? Does it make any sense to speak of bureaucracy as a kind of technology?

Conventional economic analysis identifies three basic “factors of production”: land (which includes natural resources), labor, and capital. Any increase in production is therefore taken to be the result of an increase of these factors. This view began to change in the 1950s when the historical course of economic development in the United States was analyzed through the use of sophisticated statistical techniques. It then became apparent that increases in the traditional factors of production did not adequately explain the actual record of economic growth.

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